Possible scenario
Russian Counter-Signaling
20% Chance
Russia answers the French launch and Macron’s rhetoric with its own military signaling, especially naval patrols, missile drills, and nuclear exercises. The base case remains controlled signaling rather than direct escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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