Possible scenario
Lyman Gains Extend
27% Chance
Improved artillery allocation and drone reconnaissance help Ukraine consolidate its recent 125-square-kilometer gain and press Russian lines east of Lyman. The probability is meaningful because Kyiv has shown momentum in this sector, though ammunition limits cap the scale of advance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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