Possible scenario
New Unity Rebuilds Coalition
46% Chance
Evika Siliņa’s New Unity uses its first-place finish in the exit polls to rebuild a pro-EU, pro-NATO governing majority. Coalition talks are still difficult because the outgoing alliance stumbled, but most mainstream parties prefer continuity over empowering pro-Kremlin or populist forces.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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