Possible scenario
Fragmented Saeima Deadlock
24% Chance
The exit-poll lead for New Unity does not translate into a clear majority because the vote is fragmented across mainstream, nationalist and populist parties. President Edgars Rinkēvičs must manage a longer nomination process while the outgoing cabinet stays on in a caretaker role.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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