Possible scenario
Alternative Pro-West Cabinet
18% Chance
New Unity finishes first but cannot convert that result into a governing deal. A rival bloc led by conservative and agrarian parties forms a cabinet that remains anchored in the EU and NATO, while changing domestic priorities and coalition personnel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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