Scenario description
Assume DeepSeek closes the reported Tencent/CATL-led capital raise by 2027-03-31, but at a size below the enlarged level now reported, while still constituting a completed financing. The initiating event is an operative close of the current private round for less than $12 billion or the reported yuan equivalent, including a close near the earlier $7.5 billion target or another reduced amount. The geography is China and the affected entities include DeepSeek, Tencent, CATL, participating private investors, AI infrastructure suppliers, and Chinese AI capital markets. The exact valuation, currency conversion, tranche structure, investor allocations, and exemptions are left to the eventual disclosures and should not be invented.