Possible scenario
DOJ Case Expands
38% Chance
Federal prosecutors use the CBS reporting and FBI evidence to broaden the case from alleged foreign-agent activity into money laundering, forced-labor scam facilitation, and illegal political influence. This is the most likely path because the background timeline already shows overlapping U.S., Chinese, and Cambodian enforcement actions against pig-butchering networks.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.