Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
20% Chance
The failed Senate vote may convince Tehran that U.S. operations will continue and reduce incentives for restraint. A direct attack on U.S. personnel, maritime traffic, or Israeli territory could quickly pull Washington deeper into the conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.