Possible scenario
Managed Conflict Persists
45% Chance
The Senate vote leaves President Trump with practical room to continue limited military operations against Iran. With Congress divided and no veto-proof majority emerging, the most likely path is a managed but unstable U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict below the threshold of full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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