Possible scenario
Congress Regroups
25% Chance
The 50-49 margin shows that the coalition opposing open-ended Iran operations is close to passing meaningful restraints. Rather than ending the fight, the failed resolution pushes lawmakers toward appropriations riders, narrower authorizations, or litigation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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