Possible scenario
Negotiations Reopen
25% Chance
Iran preserves its public position but permits a face-saving diplomatic path through Moscow or Oman. Oil markets unwind part of the risk premium as traders price a lower probability of confrontation around Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.2%
- Consumer Services +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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