Possible scenario
Gulf Escalation
20% Chance
The nuclear impasse spills into maritime security, with Iran signaling that pressure on its exports can be met by pressure on Gulf shipping. This is a material escalation but short of a formal war or full Hormuz closure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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