Possible scenario
Copycat Escalation
20% Chance
A less likely but material scenario is that the UN disclosure teaches adversaries which tactics worked, producing copycat campaigns against AI development platforms and cloud environments. This would create a short-lived risk-off move in technology, partly offset by gains for cybersecurity vendors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.6%
- Telecommunications -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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