Possible scenario
Limited Strike Ordered
35% Chance
The White House moves from preference to authorization, using the expanded carrier presence and prior intelligence review to justify a limited campaign against Iranian nuclear and missile infrastructure. Washington tries to keep the operation short and framed as non-regime-change to reduce escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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