Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
20% Chance
The strike threat produces a last-minute diplomatic opening through Oman, Qatar, or European intermediaries. Tehran offers limited nuclear concessions to avoid a direct U.S. attack, and Washington pauses military action while keeping forces in theater.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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