Possible scenario
Coercive Pause
30% Chance
The White House keeps the military option visible but does not immediately strike. Trump uses the intelligence review, carrier deployments, and Israeli pressure to intensify deterrence while demanding Iranian concessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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