Possible scenario
Regional War Expands
20% Chance
Iran's central command structure may be damaged, but surviving IRGC units or allied militias retaliate against U.S., Israeli, or Gulf targets. Markets focus less on Trump's victory claim and more on the risk of a wider regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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