Possible scenario
Rapid De-escalation
38% Chance
U.S. and Israeli strikes have materially reduced Iran's ability to threaten shipping, and Tehran avoids further escalation to preserve the regime. Markets treat Trump's claim as directionally credible, even if overstated, and quickly price lower Gulf disruption risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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