Possible scenario
Military Damage Overstated
30% Chance
Trump's statement proves exaggerated, and Iran retains enough missiles, mines, drones, and fast-attack boats to keep Hormuz impaired. Oil prices do not crash; instead, traders reprice the risk that disruptions last longer than the White House claims.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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