Possible scenario
Hawkish BoE Reaction
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Bank of England treats the jump in public expectations as evidence that inflation psychology is not yet anchored. Andrew Bailey and Huw Pill lean against early rate cuts, and markets price a higher probability of another hike or a longer hold at restrictive rates.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Utilities -0.7%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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