Possible scenario
Expectations Become Sticky
25% Chance
The survey becomes more than a sentiment reading if unions, employers and price-setters start using it in negotiations. That would make the BoE more worried about second-round effects and keep risk assets cautious even before hard inflation data confirm the trend.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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