Possible scenario
Managed Deterrence Posture
40% Chance
Israel codifies a more proactive doctrine but keeps major operations coordinated with Washington and narrowly targeted. This is the most likely path because Netanyahu can claim lessons from October 7 and Iran-linked threats without immediately triggering a regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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