Possible scenario
Fiscal Signal Conflicts
17% Chance
Katayama's message is tested by early budget choices from the Takaichi government. If the administration advances tax cuts, defense outlays, or energy subsidies, markets may see the anti-reflationary language as inconsistent with actual fiscal policy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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