Possible scenario
BOJ Repricing Continues
28% Chance
Markets conclude that the government's denial of reflation makes it harder to pressure the Bank of Japan into staying dovish. The focus shifts from fiscal expansion to policy normalization, keeping upward pressure on short-dated JGB yields.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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