Possible scenario
Indictment Advances
38% Chance
The most likely path is that prosecutors obtain an indictment after presenting alleged inconsistencies between Cassidy Hutchinson's January 6 committee testimony and later evidence. The case proceeds as a narrow false-statements prosecution rather than a sweeping conspiracy case, keeping market effects limited.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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