Possible scenario
Early Court Resistance
27% Chance
A federal judge allows initial proceedings but signals concern about materiality, venue, or prosecutorial selectivity. This scenario becomes more likely if the indictment relies on contested recollections rather than documentary proof.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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