Possible scenario
DOJ Pulls Back
20% Chance
The pursuit of an indictment fails or prosecutors decide the evidentiary record is not strong enough to sustain charges. This would likely be framed as a setback for DOJ after the James Comey indictment and would reduce near-term institutional-risk concerns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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