Possible scenario
Western Pacific Deterrence
20% Chance
Washington could briefly use Theodore Roosevelt's presence near Yokosuka to reinforce deterrence in the Philippine Sea, Taiwan Strait, or East China Sea before sending it onward. This would be consistent with heightened U.S.-Japan coordination while still stopping short of crisis deployment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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