Possible scenario
Best-In-Class Approval Path
45% Chance
Retatrutide's phase 3 profile is interpreted as materially stronger than current obesity therapies, supporting a high-probability FDA filing and eventual approval. Investors treat the BMI-normalization result as evidence Lilly can extend its obesity franchise beyond Zepbound.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.5%
Tickers
- LLY+4.8%
- VKTX-3.3%
- AMGN-1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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