Possible scenario
Turek Holds Edge
43% Chance
Josh Turek's new 3-point lead proves durable as the Iowa race remains highly competitive but tilts slightly Democratic. The pattern of recent polling suggests Ashley Hinson has not fully consolidated Republicans after the first debate.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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