Possible scenario
Crackdown Intensifies
20% Chance
Authorities may respond to sustained mobilization with expanded detentions and restrictions on assembly. Given the recent detention of 10,000 people and the Delhi lockdown, this remains a credible escalation path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Business Services -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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