Possible scenario
Limited US Strikes
40% Chance
The most likely escalation path is a limited U.S. operation framed as preemptive and intelligence-driven rather than an open-ended war. Washington would likely target IRGC missile infrastructure, air-defense nodes, or nuclear-linked facilities while signaling that further strikes depend on Iran’s response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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