Possible scenario
Iran Moves First
22% Chance
Iran may conclude that U.S. and Israeli preparations make an attack unavoidable and choose to fire first. This path is plausible given the IDF warning that Tehran could strike before the Oct. 27 vote and would produce the largest immediate market shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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