Possible scenario
Coercive Deterrence Holds
28% Chance
Washington may use the new policy to create credible deterrence without immediately striking. The carriers, public warnings, and Israeli intelligence disclosure could be intended to force Iran to stand down before the Oct. 27 vote.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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