Possible scenario
TSMC Wins Texas Role
40% Chance
TSMC becomes the lead manufacturing partner for the SpaceX-linked Texas terafab after Intel fails to meet commercial or technical milestones. This is the most likely outcome because TSMC already evaluated a $20 billion Texas campus and has the process credibility SpaceX and Tesla would want for high-reliability chips.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- TSM+2.6%
- INTC-1.9%
- SPCX+1.5%
- TSLA+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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