Possible scenario
Talks Slip Further
20% Chance
Negotiations slow because SpaceX wants dedicated capacity and operational control, while TSMC is cautious about economics, export controls, talent and power availability. Intel's earlier stall leaves the project without a clean replacement path.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Utilities +0.1%
Tickers
- TSM-1.6%
- INTC-1.1%
- SPCX-0.9%
- -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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