Possible scenario
Defense Ministry Contains Push
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Israel's Defense Ministry absorbs Ben Gvir's pressure without launching a large operational program. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has incentives to appease coalition hardliners rhetorically while avoiding a rupture with Washington, Cairo, Amman, and Gulf partners.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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