Possible scenario
Coalition Crisis Erupts
20% Chance
Ben Gvir may use the Defense Ministry dispute to escalate against Netanyahu, especially if he believes his base wants visible action on Gaza. The result would be a renewed Israeli political crisis, though not necessarily a collapse of the government.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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