Possible scenario
Managed Border Instability
30% Chance
The ceasefire framework survives formally, but Israel continues limited strikes against Hezbollah targets and Hezbollah calibrates its response. The US stays engaged but avoids a direct confrontation with Israel over enforcement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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