Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Nawaf Salam and Marco Rubio use the meeting to keep the US ceasefire framework alive despite Israeli strikes. Washington presses Beirut to strengthen Lebanese Armed Forces deployments while urging Israel to limit further operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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