Possible scenario
U.S. Military Response
20% Chance
Washington treats the mining of the bypass corridor as a direct escalation after the rejected ceasefire and authorizes military action against Iranian naval or drone assets. Markets price a higher probability of direct U.S.-Iran conflict, even if the initial operation is limited.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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