Possible scenario
Contained Mining Incident
35% Chance
Iranian mining of the Hormuz-bypass corridor is confirmed only in a limited area, and Saudi, U.S., and allied naval units move quickly to mark and clear the threat. Oil traders price in higher risk premia, but physical flows through the Saudi East-West pipeline and Red Sea export terminals continue with only brief delays.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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