Possible scenario
Bypass Corridor Disrupted
30% Chance
The mining campaign proves broader than first reported, and Saudi Arabia reduces or suspends part of its Hormuz-bypass system while engineers inspect the route. Oil prices move sharply higher because the redundancy that softened the earlier Hormuz attacks is no longer reliable.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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