Possible scenario
Rivals Push Back
18% Chance
Moscow and Beijing respond to the U.S. opening by offering cheaper financing, transit concessions or state-backed offtake agreements. Uzbekistan is likely to avoid a hard alignment choice, but even limited counterpressure could slow U.S. commercial follow-through.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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