Possible scenario
AI Funding Stress
18% Chance
The IMF warning coincides with a failed or postponed AI infrastructure financing, turning a general risk warning into a near-term credit event. This remains well short of a systemic banking crisis, but it produces a sharper risk-off move in AI-linked debt and equities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.7%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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