Possible scenario
US Reengages Israel
20% Chance
The White House decides that an unsupported Israeli attack would be too destabilizing and moves to regain control of the escalation ladder. US policy shifts toward a coordinated ultimatum, tougher sanctions enforcement, and potentially limited military backing for Israel.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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