Possible scenario
Limited Israeli Strike
38% Chance
Netanyahu authorizes a unilateral but bounded operation against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, missile facilities, and air-defense nodes. Israel avoids an open-ended campaign and signals through intermediaries that the strikes are intended to delay enrichment rather than trigger regime change.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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