Possible scenario
Diplomacy Delays Action
27% Chance
Washington, Oman, and European governments press both sides to step back while the IAEA seeks renewed access to buried uranium sites. Netanyahu keeps the preemptive-strike threat alive but postpones overt military action to preserve diplomatic and military flexibility.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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