Possible scenario
Limited Military Exchange
20% Chance
The drone capture becomes the trigger for a limited U.S. military response against IRGC assets tied to surveillance or drone seizures. Iran retaliates below the level of full war, likely through harassment, proxies, or symbolic strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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