Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
45% Chance
Washington and Tehran use UN and Omani channels to keep the drone seizures from becoming a wider military clash. Iran preserves propaganda value from the video while the United States avoids immediate strikes and emphasizes deconfliction around the Strait of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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